Key buyers included CPTPP countries, China including Hong Kong, and the US, where tra fish shipments rose 3.7 per cent to USD 234 million in the first eight months. The EU and South Korea also remained steady markets.

Le Hang, deputy secretary-general of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), forecast strong sales in September and October but warned of slower demand from late November.

She cited rising challenges, including tariff shifts and market restrictions. In the US, a 20 per cent retaliatory tariff has eroded Vietnam’s competitiveness against Thailand, Indonesia, and Ecuador. Shrimp faces added risk from potential anti-dumping duties under the upcoming 19th administrative review.

The US Marine Mammal Protection Act assessments denied certification for 12 Vietnamese fisheries, including tuna, mackerel, squid, octopus, and some crustaceans. Starting January 1, 2026, these products will be barred from the US, threatening over USD 500 million in annual sales.

To offset the pressure, exporters are targeting Asia, the Middle East, and South America while boosting value-added processing. Tra fish exports to China are easing, but CPTPP, ASEAN, and South American markets are expanding. Japan, Canada, and Mexico benefit from tariff preferences and demand safe, convenient products, making them attractive long-term prospects.

Regional markets such as Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore are increasing purchases of tra fish, helped by lower shipping costs and similar consumer tastes. ASEAN is emerging as a more stable alternative to distant, regulation-heavy markets.

While frozen fillets still dominate, processed tra fish products are rising fastest, showing exporters are adapting to consumer demand for convenience. Shrimp exports remain solid, particularly to high-value EU markets. Eurostat expects EU shrimp imports to reach 400,000 tonnes in 2025, a multi-year high that could lift Vietnam’s profits.

Industry analysts said exporters must stop competing on price and focus on quality, transparency, and sustainability. Certifications such as ASC, organic, and carbon-smart are becoming essential, alongside stricter antibiotic controls.

Focusing on fast-growing EU markets such as Germany, Belgium, France, and Denmark, where premium products are in demand, could maximise resources. Expanding value-added shrimp products will also help Vietnam counter rivals such as Ecuador and India, they said.

To sustain growth, VASEP is calling for coordinated aquaculture zoning, stricter quality controls, and urgent solutions to remove the EU’s yellow card on illegal fishing. It is also seeking ways to overcome US tariff and technical barriers to safeguard Vietnam’s seafood export momentum.